New research suggests returns on investment in fine art
have been significantly exaggerated. Economists' advice to collectors:
buy art if you enjoy it, but not with the expectation of profit.
No longer simply framed and hung in homes or museums, art is now
bundled into financial instruments and used to diversify investment
portfolios. Financial analysts have measured the annual rate of return
for art funds at 10 percent over the last 40 years.
But new analysis by researchers at the University of Luxembourg's
School of Finance suggest the rate of return is significantly lower.
Their findings were detailed in a paper published in the journal Review of Financial Studies.
Economists looked at auction sale data collected by the Blouin Art
Sales Index to more accurately measure both the potential returns and
risks involved in art fund investments. Their work suggests art as an
asset provided a return rate of 6.3 percent between 1960 and 2013.
Researchers also found the risks assumed in hopes of profit were
underestimated.
Researchers blame the overvaluation on selection bias in the art
market. The most valuable and quickly appreciating pieces of art go to
sale most frequently and are sold for the highest prices. These inflated
prices are then used to overvalue the remaining art that doesn't sell.
By incorporating data on how likely a painting is to sell and how
quickly prices rise over time, researchers were able to more accurately
value the art market. Their analysis suggests a portfolio with an art
fund is no more likely to outperform the market than a portfolio without
one.
The new analysis applies specifically to art funds, but risks are high for individual investors, too.
"If you own a painting, you bear the physical risks and costs,
including insurance, damage, and theft or forgery, among others,"
researcher Roman Kräussl, a professor of finance at Luxembourg, said in a
news release.
"In short, buy paintings if you like looking at them,"
Kräussl concluded. "You can hope that your children will sell one or
more of them later for a gain -- but paintings are primarily aesthetic
investments, not financial ones."
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