Shorter-range electric cars meet the needs of almost all US drivers
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Jonathan M. Gitlin
The vast majority of American drivers
could switch to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) tomorrow and carry on
with their lives unaffected, according to a new study in Nature Energy.
What's more, those BEVs need not be a $100,000 Tesla, either. That's
the conclusion from a team at MIT and the Santa Fe Institute in New
Mexico that looked at the potential for BEV adoption in the US in light
of current driving patterns. Perhaps most interestingly, the study found
that claim to be true for a wide range of cities with very distinct
geography and even per-capita gasoline consumption.
The authors—led by MIT's Jessika Trancik—used
the Nissan Leaf as their representative vehicle. The Leaf is one of the
best-selling BEVs on the market, second only to the Tesla Model S in
2015 (10,990 sold vs 13,300 Teslas).
But it's not particularly long-legged; although the vehicle got an
optional battery bump from 24kWh to 30kWh for 2016, its quoted range is
107 miles on a full charge. You don't need to spend long browsing
comment threads or car forums to discover that many drivers think this
is too short a range for their particular use cases. Yet, Trancik and
colleagues disagree.
The authors use the 24kWh Nissan Leaf as the
basis for their calculations, based on a probabilistic model of BEV
range based on driving behavior (rather than just looking at average
commute distances and BEV range). This involved using information from
the National Household Travel Survey, hourly temperature data for 16 US
cities, and GPS data from travel surveys in California, Atlanta, and
Houston (to calculate second-by-second speed profiles of different trip
types).
As we all know, fuel economy figures published by the EPA rarely match the real-world,
and quoted battery range often needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
And this is true for the Leaf—using the GPS survey data the authors
calculate that overwhelming majority of trips that match the EPA drive
cycle in distance and duration have a greater energy intensity (0.23
kWh/mile for the EPA highway calculation, 0.24-0.33kWh/mile for 90
percent of trips). On top of that, most of us need to run the air
conditioning or heater (which is where that hourly temperature data
comes in), so the study factors this in, giving the 24kWh Leaf a
real-world range of 73 miles (117km).
This almost matches the probabilistic model's
calculation of 74 miles (119km) as the "distance for which half of all
vehicle trips could be covered on one charge," illustrated in the
reproduced figure below:
Next, the authors used this model to examine
how many US drivers could have their daily needs met by a BEV (again,
based on the 2013 Nissan Leaf and real-world daily range of 73 miles on a
single charge). In fact, 87 percent of all trips made by US
drivers fall within this range. This is more than double the percentage
found by the Union of Concerned Scientists in 2013, which found that 42 percent of US households could switch to EVs without much disruption.
Even in rural areas, 81 percent of drivers
could switch to a BEV according to Needell et al., rising to above 90
percent for cities like Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Miami. The city-level
comparisons are also rather illuminating. For instance, comparing the
public transport paradise of New York City with the car-dependent sprawl
of Houston revealed that the daily needs of drivers in both cities are
within one percent of each other.
The fact that the study uses a 19.2kWh BEV (80
percent of the full 24kWh Leaf battery) as its representative vehicle
should be even more encouraging for advocates of electrification.
Batteries are getting cheaper and more energy-dense every year, and BEVs
like the Chevrolet Bolt and Tesla Model 3 promise to double the Leaf's
range for roughly the same price. A 55kWh battery should be capable of
handling almost all our daily driving needs on a single charge, absent
the cross-country road trip.
An accompanying commentary in Nature Energy
finds it therefore mystifying that more people aren't making the switch
to EVs. But as the National Academy of Science found last year, range isn't the only hurdle to adoption;
long charging times, price (a Nissan Versa costs about half as much as
the similar-but-electric Nissan Leaf), lack of infrastructure, and
general confusion about the technology are all factors holding back EVs
(whether they be plug-in hybrid or pure battery). With time, we can
expect most of those factors will improve. For the meantime though,
don't expect those internet commenters to stop complaining about how the
electric car is a waste of time because they absolutely have to drive
200 miles to work every morning.
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