A new battlefront in the scooter wars
The Trump administration’s latest trade penalties against China could
siphon millions of dollars from Silicon Valley’s latest darling:
electric scooter startups. Since most US e-scooter companies rely on
vehicles manufactured in China, the most recent slew of tariffs to go
into effect could slam the brakes on the budding two-wheeled revolution.
"The taxes are coming at a moment when the fledgling industry already has a lot to handle"
On August 7th, the administration announced that it will be placing a 25
percent tariff on $16 billion in Chinese goods, bringing the simmering
trade war with China to a boil. The tariffs are the second round of
taxes that the US has imposed on Chinese goods — the first was slapped
on $34 billion worth of Chinese products in July. On the proposed list
of affected goods, sandwiched between special purpose motor vehicles and
refrigerated vessels, is HTS code 8711.60.00, described as “Motorcycles
(incl. mopeds) and cycles, w/electric motor for propulsion.” In other
words, electric bicycles and scooters.
The US will start enforcing the tariff on August 23rd. And the timing
isn’t exactly ideal. The taxes are coming at a moment when the fledgling
industry already has a lot to handle.
Since descending upon San Francisco last March, electric scooters have
swarmed more than 20 cities across the US, from Miami to Salt Lake City.
The dockless two-wheelers have been sold as a way to ease gridlock
while letting riders zip through streets with pizazz. “Ride your way,”
the San Francisco-based Spin promises. Over the past few months, Bird
raised $400 million and leapt to a $2 billion valuation. Spin began by
peddling shared bikes, but quickly pivoted to scooters. Uber and Lyft
made their intentions clear when the ride-share titans both applied for
one of five coveted permits to operate scooters in San Francisco.
Embracing a mantra popularized by Uber (“don’t ask for permission; beg for forgiveness&rdquo,
scooter startups have followed a pattern: dump vehicles in a city,
raise demand, and then watch as local governments try to corral the
chaos. But, like any good Newtonian physicist will tell you, a sudden,
explosive force will be met with equal resistance. And that resistance
is starting to add up — cease and desist orders, city-wide bans, and a
torrent of criticism. That’s a lot of troubleshooting to manage even
without a significant import tax.
"The majority of the startups battling for scooter supremacy use vehicles manufactured in China"
The majority of the startups battling for scooter supremacy use vehicles
manufactured in China. Bird, Lime, and Spin work with Segway-Ninebot, a
Beijing-based subsidiary of Xiaomi. Earlier this summer, Quartz
reported that both Bird and Spin imported some of their scooters under a
variant of HTS code 8711.60.00.
If the tariffs had been in place over the last six months, companies
would certainly have felt their wallets get lighter. According to PIERS
import data, during that time, the US imported around $61 million worth
of goods from China under the e-scooter description. A 25 percent tariff
would have raised costs for scooter importers by over $15 million.
That’s a lot of money when you consider what makes scooters such a
hot-ticket item for entrepreneurs: they’re relatively cheap and easy to
manufacture. Right now, a Chinese-made scooter costs each company around
$400. Add a 25 percent import tax, and you’re looking at a final cost
of $500.
“If you raise the cost of capital by 25 percent, there’s no question
that it will slow the spread, city to city, of these things,” says
Michael Ramsey, a transportation analyst at Gartner. “And it might
change the dynamics of how much [companies] can charge.”
To offset that bump in capital, transportation experts say that startups
will most likely have to charge consumers more per ride. (That or
pilfer their own VC funds.) Right now, customers unlock the vehicles
using a smartphone app for $1, with an additional 10 to 15 cent cost for
each minute spent riding.
Some companies are brushing off the import tax with characteristic
tech-bubble braggadocio. “We don’t see this affecting growth,” says
Derrick Ko, CEO and co-founder of Spin. “We have built our business
model to allow us to be flexible to price increases over time in terms
of hardware costs. While we would rather not be hit by tariffs, it’s not
the end of the world if they do come down.”
"“The tariffs might actually make [companies] be a little bit more strategic.”"
But others seem to take the potential tariff seriously. In a letter to
Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, Lime CEO Toby
Sun called the proposed tariffs “misguided,” claiming they would result
in increased prices for the public. On July 25th, Daniel Harman, vice
president of Bird, testified against the tariff in Washington alongside
members of the e-bike industry. Electric bicycles are imported under the
same tariff code as e-scooters.
“Trade policies that raise costs for riders and hurt potential job
creation are detrimental to advancing smart transportation solutions,”
says Mary Caroline Pruitt, communications manager at Lime, in an emailed
statement.
Lime, Bird, and Lyft did not make company officials available for
interviews. Uber did not respond to The Verge’s request for comment.
Sarah Catz, a transit researcher at UC Irvine, thinks that the tariffs
might bring an unintended benefit for companies whose dump-and-run
approach has rubbed city officials the wrong way. “The tariffs might
actually make [companies] be a little bit more strategic,” she says.
“Because costs are going up, they’re going to need to not just
carelessly dump scooters in a city and think that’s okay. They’re not
going to want to waste them.”
But Ramsey isn’t ruling out the possibility that struggling against a
huge headwind from cost (at the same time that cities are tightening
their regulatory clamps) might just be enough to snuff the scooter wars
out.
“The municipal regulation combined with, all of a sudden, the cost
jumping 25 percent has the potential to get the legs out from this
industry before it even got anywhere,” he says.
And which companies — the scrappy upstarts or the established disruptors
— are the most vulnerable? “It’s not the big guys,” says Ramsey. “It’s
the little guys. They’re the ones who take the punishment.”
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