President Donald Trump on Thursday held
out hopes of salvaging a trade deal with China, just hours before
Beijing's negotiators were due to return to the bargaining table amid a
sudden flare-up in hostilities.
With punishing US tariffs on hundreds of billions in Chinese merchandise
due to jump after midnight, Trump told reporters he had received a
letter from his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, and would likely speak
to him by telephone later.
"It's possible to do it," Trump said of the trade deal at the White
House. "I did get last night a very beautiful letter from President Xi."
But Trump warned he was also more than happy to use tariffs in resolving his differences with China.
"I am different than a lot of people. I happen to think that tariffs, for our country, are very powerful."
Months of increasing comity and optimism in trade talks appeared to go
up in smoke this week as American officials accused China of a wholesale
retreat from previously agreed commitments -- a claim Beijing strongly
rejected.
"They took many, many parts of that deal and they renegotiated. You can't do that," Trump said Thursday.
Since early this year, the trade talks have worked to resolve
Washington's grievances of industrial theft, massive state intervention
in markets and a yawning trade deficit.
China's Commerce Ministry warned Beijing would not "capitulate to any
pressure" and threatened retaliation if US tariffs go up to 25 percent
as scheduled on Friday -- punctuating the drastic deterioration after
months of seemingly collegial talks.
"The Chinese side has kept its promises and this has never changed," he
added, without specifying what measures Beijing would take but warning
that it "has already prepared for all possible situations."
Since last year, the two sides have exchanged tariffs on more than $360
billion in two-way trade, gutting US agricultural exports to China and
weighing on both countries' manufacturing sectors.
The International Monetary Fund also repeated its warning on Thursday
that the trade battle between the world's top economies was a "threat"
to global growth.
- 'Fundamental misunderstanding' -
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that in March the trade
deficit with China had hit a three-year low, with US exports to China
rising while imports, such as mobile telephones, fell.
The renewed tensions roiled global stock markets this week and unnerved exporters caught off guard.
But word of Xi's letter appeared to soothe Wall Street's nerves somewhat
on Thursday, with the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average recovering
some of the day's sell-off shortly after 1700 GMT, leaving it down 0.7
percent.
Markets in Europe and Asia also sank again.
Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute,
told AFP the two sides had clashed over how much of the final trade
agreement should be enshrined in publicly available document, something
Beijing has long resisted.
"There was a fundamental misunderstanding," he told AFP by email.
"President Trump faces a political battle selling a China deal as being
worthwhile. To do so, he needs a public document with clear gains for
the US," Scissors said.
"But what China is willing to acknowledge in public is less than it is willing to acknowledge in private."
He noted that "the two sides failed to realize that they have very different tolerance for transparency."
But Scott Kennedy a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies said China had misjudged the Americans' eagerness
to cut a deal at all costs.
"They didn't realize when they pulled their concessions off the table
that the administration would have the reaction that it did," he told
AFP.
Kennedy warned that the "possibilities for miscalculation on both sides is pretty high."
Chinese producers said the abrupt tariff hike announcement wreaked havoc
on operations and would bring high costs, layoffs and further shifts of
production to Southeast Asia.
"If the tariffs go up to 25 percent, costs will go up. Customers so far
have suspended orders. I don't know what will happen," said Emily Wang
of Hainan Zhongyi Frozen Food, which exports tilapia.
Washington has demanded far-reaching changes to the Chinese economy,
such as subjecting state enterprises to market principles, reducing
massive subsidies and ending the alleged theft of US technology.
Analysts say China will be reluctant to make many of these changes, which could undermine the Communist Party's political power.
While US companies complain of lost export markets, disrupted supply
chains and higher costs, the US continues to see steady growth and
falling unemployment.
But each side believes it is better positioned than the other to survive the dispute, Kennedy said.
The Chinese "don't see themselves as fragile and they see the US as
having grown very quickly as a result of a tax cut that the US can't
afford," he said.
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