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9-11 minutes
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. | Mario Tama/Getty Images
Democrats' bid to recapture the Senate got a major boost this week.
Joe Biden surged to the top of the presidential primary, temporarily calming widespread fear about running with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at the top of their ticket. Candidates handpicked by the national party advanced in Senate primaries in North Carolina and Texas. And their long, uphill quest to get Montana Gov. Steve Bullock to run for Senate is looking increasingly likely to pay off ahead of Monday’s filing deadline.
It’s still a significant challenge for Democrats to recapture the chamber, and they have to run the table in a series of competitive races, many in red-leaning states President Donald Trump won in 2016. But with Montana potentially expanding the target list, party officials are growing more upbeat about their chances.
Joe Biden surged to the top of the presidential primary, temporarily calming widespread fear about running with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at the top of their ticket. Candidates handpicked by the national party advanced in Senate primaries in North Carolina and Texas. And their long, uphill quest to get Montana Gov. Steve Bullock to run for Senate is looking increasingly likely to pay off ahead of Monday’s filing deadline.
It’s still a significant challenge for Democrats to recapture the chamber, and they have to run the table in a series of competitive races, many in red-leaning states President Donald Trump won in 2016. But with Montana potentially expanding the target list, party officials are growing more upbeat about their chances.
“We have a better chance of winning now than we did just a few weeks ago,” said Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), an early Biden endorser.
“I’m optimistic. I think we have some good candidates, and I think Joe Biden at the top of the ticket is going to be wonderful,” added Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)
Democrats were broadly concerned several weeks ago by the potential of Sanders as the party's standardbearer, even as battleground senators and candidates said they would support the eventual nominee. Their challengers would likely be forced to distance themselves from his liberal platform, complicating their message in swing states. That still remains a distinct possibility if Sanders sees another resurgence in the tumultuous presidential primary. But for now, Biden’s momentum is calming their anxiety.
“It’s easier, when you're running as a moderate in a moderate state, that you run on a ticket where the person at the top of the ticket is more moderate,” said former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), who won in 2012 despite President Barack Obama losing North Dakota by more than 20 points. Heitkamp, who lost her 2018 reelection, endorsed Biden this week ahead of North Dakota’s primary.
“I’m optimistic. I think we have some good candidates, and I think Joe Biden at the top of the ticket is going to be wonderful,” added Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)
Democrats were broadly concerned several weeks ago by the potential of Sanders as the party's standardbearer, even as battleground senators and candidates said they would support the eventual nominee. Their challengers would likely be forced to distance themselves from his liberal platform, complicating their message in swing states. That still remains a distinct possibility if Sanders sees another resurgence in the tumultuous presidential primary. But for now, Biden’s momentum is calming their anxiety.
“It’s easier, when you're running as a moderate in a moderate state, that you run on a ticket where the person at the top of the ticket is more moderate,” said former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), who won in 2012 despite President Barack Obama losing North Dakota by more than 20 points. Heitkamp, who lost her 2018 reelection, endorsed Biden this week ahead of North Dakota’s primary.
Biden so far has support from Democratic challengers Mark Kelly in Arizona, Sara Gideon in Maine and Amy McGrath in Kentucky. But insurgent liberals,
Betsy Sweet in Maine and state Rep. Charles Booker in Kentucky,
endorsed Sanders, setting up ideological primary challenges against party-endorsed candidates.
Others are
holding their fire. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), whose state holds a
critical primary next week, didn’t weigh in on a question about Biden
versus Sanders.
“I will run with
either one,” Peters said. “I run on my record and run on the issues that
I care about that are important to Michigan.”
But most party operatives agree that Biden is better for the fortunes of downballot candidates.
“Biden
puts us in a strong position in the suburbs, which is how we won back
the House in 2018 and how we're going to win back the presidency in
2020,” said Martha McKenna, a veteran operative who ran the Democratic
Senatorial Campaign Committee independent expenditures in 2018. “Senate
candidates should benefit from that.”
Republicans aren’t expressing much concern about the Senate landscape after riding a wave
of Sanders-related attacks in recent weeks. They argue Biden is also a
flawed nominee, and that even though they’re on defense, the map tilts
heavily into Republican territory.
“When
you look at all the previous Democratic candidates they were just
different flavors of far-leftism,” said National Republican Senatorial
Committee Chair Todd Young (Ind.) “Now we have Joe Biden, who proposes a
$4 trillion menu of goodies for the American people, which, of course,
are going to have to be paid for through middle-class tax increases.”
Republicans
also got a bit of long anticipated good news this week: the NRSC took
an “anybody but Roy Moore” stance in the Alabama Senate primary, and
Moore, the controversial judge who lost a 2017 special election,
finished a distant fourth Tuesday. Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions
and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville advanced to a March 31 runoff, and party leaders feel confident about either candidate's odds to oust Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in November.
Some
Democrats urged caution about reading too much into positive
developments. Bullock is not officially in the race yet, though he is widely expected to run. Biden hasn’t secured the nomination, and their preferred candidates still face primary challenges.
Sen.
Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said his advice was to treat it like golf:
“Don’t get too excited when you hit a bad shot. Don’t get too excited
when you hit a good shot.”
In
Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper, the DSCC-endorsed candidate,
did not endorse before the state's presidential primary this week. He
faces a Senate primary in June against a number of candidates, including former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Sanders won the Colorado primary Tuesday.
Dan Baer, a State Department alum who was running for Senate in Colorado but dropped out to endorse Hickenlooper in the race to face vulnerable GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, argues Biden is clearly a better candidate down ballot, but not for ideological reasons.
“A
Biden campaign would be a referendum on Trump,” Baer said. “Bernie’s
campaign would be a referendum on a very different vision for our
society. My gut, looking back at 2018, is that the former is better for
Senate candidates in swing states.”
Democrats
were also buoyed by their first primary results for their DSCC-endorsed
candidates. Cal Cunningham won comfortably in North Carolina, a top
target for Democrats, and MJ Hegar advanced to a runoff in Texas.
But
the North Carolina effort was expensive, with more than $11 million in
outside spending to boost Cunningham alongside his campaign's efforts.
Sen. Thom Tillis emerged with a massive cash advantage.
“They were forced to spend a fortune to push Cunningham over a field
of nobodies, and now they’ll have to spend three times that amount to
try to drag him through the general election,” said Steven Law, who runs
Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that financed $3 million in ads
boosting Cunningham’s Democratic opponent in the primary.
In Texas, Hegar's May 26 primary runoff with state Sen. Royce West will give GOP Sen. John Cornyn — who already has more than $12 million cash on hand — two more months to increase his financial advantage while Democrats spend resources in the massively expensive state.
And in Montana, Republicans have long been planning for Bullock to enter the race against first-term GOP Sen. Steve Daines. Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ran ads hitting Bullock last May in anticipation of a Senate run. The state GOP released a video compilation this week of his statements dismissing a campaign for Senate.
“Gov. Bullock isn’t actually interested, nor does he have the skills or abilities to be a U.S. senator. He said so himself. He simply couldn’t resist the pressure from Barack Obama and Chuck Schumer,” Chairman Don Kaltschmidt said.
But Bullock potentially jumping in the race is a big win for Democrats, who argue he can turn it into a toss-up. Former Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who held the seat before resigning in 2014 to become ambassador to China, said that Bullock's meeting with Schumer played a key role in his reconsidering.
“Probably Steve realizes we’re in striking distance of winning back [the Senate], and, second, it’s patriotism. It’s the right thing to do,” said Baucus, who has encouraged Bullock to run and endorsed Biden's presidential bid. “It’s more difficult if Sanders is on the ballot. But with the vice president [as] our nominee [it] makes it easier.”
Still, he said, beating Daines won’t be a “cake walk. It’s going to be a very difficult race.”
In Texas, Hegar's May 26 primary runoff with state Sen. Royce West will give GOP Sen. John Cornyn — who already has more than $12 million cash on hand — two more months to increase his financial advantage while Democrats spend resources in the massively expensive state.
And in Montana, Republicans have long been planning for Bullock to enter the race against first-term GOP Sen. Steve Daines. Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ran ads hitting Bullock last May in anticipation of a Senate run. The state GOP released a video compilation this week of his statements dismissing a campaign for Senate.
“Gov. Bullock isn’t actually interested, nor does he have the skills or abilities to be a U.S. senator. He said so himself. He simply couldn’t resist the pressure from Barack Obama and Chuck Schumer,” Chairman Don Kaltschmidt said.
But Bullock potentially jumping in the race is a big win for Democrats, who argue he can turn it into a toss-up. Former Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who held the seat before resigning in 2014 to become ambassador to China, said that Bullock's meeting with Schumer played a key role in his reconsidering.
“Probably Steve realizes we’re in striking distance of winning back [the Senate], and, second, it’s patriotism. It’s the right thing to do,” said Baucus, who has encouraged Bullock to run and endorsed Biden's presidential bid. “It’s more difficult if Sanders is on the ballot. But with the vice president [as] our nominee [it] makes it easier.”
Still, he said, beating Daines won’t be a “cake walk. It’s going to be a very difficult race.”
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