Track and analyze the COVID-19 pandemic with KNIME

Paolo Tamagnini and Rosaria Silipo

15-18 minutes

Download KNIME’s guided analytics dashboard to visualize the latest COVID-19 data, or try the entire KNIME Analytics Platform workflow

da-kuk / Getty Images

We are all familiar with this chart by now.

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Figure 1. Cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths due to COVID-19, and recoveries by day worldwide.

With the increasingly rapid spread of COVID-19 all around the world, we have read and heard much about how contagious it is; its impact on China, Iran, South Korea, Italy, and elsewhere; and the severe containment measures adopted. And we have seen many versions of this chart, monitoring the spread of the disease daily by counting the cumulative number of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries all over the world.
An informative breakdown of these numbers can be found in the widely visited blog post “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now” by Tomas Pueyo, published on March 10, 2020. There, the dramatic differences between the spread of the disease within China and outside China show how effective the containment measures in China were and the danger that the coronavirus poses to the the U.S., Iran, Italy, and the rest of the world. Two weeks later, how has the situation evolved?
We have reproduced this line plot and other charts in a free-to-download web application that allows you to drill down on the data behind the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, we cannot say that the situation has improved for the better. We have seen a sharp increase of confirmed cases in March. We broke down these numbers to explore the situation by continent and by country.

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COVID-19 in Asia

Let’s start with a breakdown of the data in Asia, where the epidemic started. The cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases by country in Asia, updated to March 23, are shown in Figure 2a. China’s curve has been removed from the plot since its very high number of confirmed cases prevents us from seeing the trends in the other Asian countries.

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Figure 2a. Cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases by day across countries in Asia, without China.

Figure 2a shows the high number of cases in South Korea and Iran. The flattening of South Korea’s curve, started at the beginning of March, has continued over the past two weeks and gives hope to all other countries still fighting the virus. Lockdown and people tracking measures have been enforced in South Korea since February 20. Apparently, it took 10 to 14 days before the effects of such measures showed up in the plot.
Even after removing China’s data, the high range of the numbers for South Korea and Iran makes it hard to see what is happening in the other countries. For better visibility into the details, this same line plot was moved to a logarithmic scale on the y-axis (Figure  2b). Here the trends for all countries, not just South Korea and Iran, can be seen more easily. Notice that in a logarithmic scale everything becomes less dramatic: Exponential curves become lines, and the slower growth becomes more evident. For example, we can see that the growth in the number of confirmed cases in South Korea has decreased more than in Japan, even though the two ranges of cumulative numbers are quite far apart.
The investigation of the curves for Asian countries is a quite important piece of the puzzle since these countries were affected earlier on by the epidemic and therefore have longer experience in handling it. By checking these curves, we can learn more about the spread of the disease and the effectiveness of the containment measures.
For South Korea, the onset of the epidemic can be dated back to around January 20; a huge increase followed in mid-February until the slowdown commenced at the beginning of March. Again, this indicates a time span of roughly two weeks before containment measures took effect.
Japan’s curve starts a bit earlier; it grows similarly to the curve of South Korea at the beginning, accelerates at the beginning of February, continues to grow slowly but steadily for a while, and looks as if it is flattening just now as well.
Moving west, we see the insurgence of the epidemic in the Middle East, mainly in Iran. The spread of the disease there starts later than in the Far East, but it follows the same dramatic trend with no hint of slowing down, for now.
The epidemic has recently also exploded in Malaysia and Turkey. Their trends of confirmed cases look similar to the initial curve of South Korea and Iran. Only time will tell which direction they will move.

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Figure 2b. Logarithmic scale of cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases by day across countries in Asia, without China.

COVID-19 in Europe

Figure 3a, below, shows the dramatic situation in Europe, where Italy suffers the highest number of confirmed cases (from 25K to 60K in a week). Severe lockdown measures have been implemented in Italy starting in early March, initially in a milder form but stepping up in strictness from March 9. The effects of such measures do not seem to have entered the curve in the plot yet. Similar measures have been introduced in the past few days in Spain, France, Germany, and most other European countries.

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Figure 3a. Cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases by day across countries in Europe.

However, numbers about the spread of the contagion do not tell the whole story. The other face of an epidemic is its lethality, i.e., the number of deaths. A similar plot to the one in Figure 3a is shown in Figure 3b. This time, on the y-axis we see the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 as opposed to the number of confirmed cases. This plot is similar to the one in Figure 3a, with Italy paying the largest toll in terms of number of deaths.
In other European countries, with a later onset of the epidemic, the disease is showing a considerable increase in the number of deaths, as in Spain and France, while for whatever reason, it does not seem to be as lethal in Germany.

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Figure 3b. Cumulative numbers of deaths due to COVID-19 by day across countries in Europe.

The steep rise of Italy’s curve indicating the number of confirmed cases is not the only worrisome aspect of the plot in Figure 3a. Note that Germany, France, and Spain are the next countries in line for the exponential spreading of the contagion. Their curves seem to be following Italy’s curve closely; they are just delayed in time. Containment measures have been enforced in these countries in the last few days, following Italy’s lead two weeks ago. It is definitely too early to see any effect in the plots.
[ Also on InfoWorld: How to keep bias out of your AI models ]

Comparing COVID-19 curves across countries

Another popular chart that has been visible on the internet in the past few days was produced by Mark Handley and is available on his Twitter account. It’s a line plot of cumulative numbers where the time on the x-axis has been normalized as the number of days from the onset of the epidemic in the countries. Considering time zero as the time when the first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in each country, the curve is subsequently plotted over the number of days from that time zero. The advantage of such a view is the overlapping of the curves as if they were evolving at the same time. It is a way for countries to now learn from the experience of countries that were affected earlier (Figure 4).

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Figure 4. Cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases by day across 10 of the most affected countries. The time on the x-axis has been normalized as the number of days from the onset of the epidemic in each country, which we defined as the first day with at least 20 cases.

Mark Handley used this graphic on March 9 to show where countries like Germany or France were headed if they did not take urgent containment measures. Indeed, the curves for many European countries begin just as Italy’s does, which could indicate a similar evolution unless earlier containment measures are taken. Two weeks later, we can see that Germany and France continue to follow the early trend set by Italy, while the U.S. and Spain show even more dramatic growth than Italy in the early days.
Comparing Italy to South Korea, we can see that the early start of the epidemic in the two countries is similar, though South Korea begins seeing a reduction in the growth of confirmed cases about one month later. According to this graphic, and assuming that the containment measures have the same effects in both countries, we can expect the growth to slow in Italy within the next week. Notice that “assuming that the containment measures have the same effects in both countries” is a largely unverified assumption, since Italy has not implemented widespread testing and contact tracing as South Korea has done.

COVID-19 in North America

The most worrisome curve in North America is for the U.S. (Figure 5a). The fast spreading of the disease resembles the early data points for European countries (Figure 4). Notice that as of March 15, the U.S. had only 3,500 confirmed cases, while now, just one week later, the confirmed cases of COVID-19 are 35,000. A spread factor of 10 in just a week!
Canada has smaller numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in comparison to the U.S. However, if we inspect the logarithmic curve, we can see that the aggressivity of the disease spread is similar (Figure 5b).

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Figure 5a. Cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in North America.

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Figure 5b. Logarithmic scale of cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in North America.

COVID-19 in Africa, Oceania, and South America

Countries in Africa, South and Central America, and Oceania are starting to see the spread of the virus and their first deaths. Isolation measures have been implemented in most of those countries as well.

COVID-19 around the world

As we noted at the beginning, the situation worldwide is not improving, as we’re seeing a steep increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths. However, cumulative numbers and the flattening of the curve do not tell the whole story. We can have a more in-depth look at the situation by checking the number of new confirmed cases day by day for the most affected countries (Figure 6).
Here we can see a first dramatic jump in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world on March 13, 2020. March 12 has incomplete data, which is why the numbers are smaller than expected. The second big jump in the number of confirmed new cases took place on March 19, mainly due to the large increase in cases in the U.S. (bright orange) and Spain (light orange). New confirmed cases in Italy (light blue) seem to remain constant day after day, which could be taken as a good news. Also, the number of new confirmed cases have become negligible for China and South Korea, which explains the flattening of Korea’s cumulative curve in Figures 2a and 2b.

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Figure 6. Daily numbers of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the most affected countries: Italy (light blue), U.S. (bright orange), Spain (light orange), Germany (bright green), Iran (light green), France (red), etc.

A web application for COVID-19 analysis

Finally, let’s try to put aside the pandemic for a moment and look at how we implemented this web application using guided analytics. It consists of two pages. The first page shows the general line plot of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries worldwide (displayed in Figure 1). Here, we can also select the type of analysis we want to perform: worldwide or for a specific continent; counting the number of confirmed cases, deaths, or recoveries.
By clicking “Next” in the lower right corner of the page, we move to the second page of the web application (Figure 8). This is where you will find all the subgraphics we showed in Figures 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 as well as a choropleth on a world map. All plots are interactive. You can add and remove countries to and from the list, zoom in and out of sections of the plot, select data points, and show the same data points in all other plots as well.

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Figure 8. Second page of the web application to visualize worldwide COVID-19 data. This is where the plots and charts described above are displayed. In this case, we see the dashboard for European countries only.

No coding was required to develop this application. The KNIME workflow for implementing this web application, COVID-19 Live Visualization using Guided Analytics (Figure 9), can be downloaded from the KNIME Hub.

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