By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
6-7 minutes
It is a message to Israel, the US and allies: We can reach you.
Iranian versions of the American RQ-170 drone which were
used in a military exercise in the Gulf in Iran, involving dozens of
drones, are seen on the a runway, in this undated handout photo.
(photo credit: REUTERS/TASNIM NEWS AGENCY)
Iran’s Defense Ministry unveiled a mass of new drones over the
weekend for the Islamic Republic’s army and air force. According to
Tehran the drones have new capabilities, and can fly more than 1,000
km., which means they could reach Israel from Iran.
Iran has been
producing drones since the 1980s and is an innovator in drone warfare.
It used 25 drones and cruise missiles to attack Saudi Arabia last
September, and has flown drones into Israeli airspace.
Iran’s
Defense Minister Brig.-Gen. Amir Hatami showed off the drones on
Saturday. He said that one jet-powered UAV could fly at speeds of 900
km. per hour at an altitude of 12,000 meters. This would rival the best
drones that the US and other countries are now using. These drones have a
range of up to 1,500 km., he said, and can fly for several hours. It is
a message to Israel, the US and their allies: We can reach you.
Iran
says it has provided a “mass delivery” of the Ababil-3 and Karar drones
to the air force. The country has a new drone unit that it established
in recent years and its IRGC has been using drones to target various
enemies, including ISIS. The Ababil-3, Hatami says, can fly 150 km., and
the Karar is armed with various weapons that now give the drones
“pinpoint” attack abilities. The implication is that these drones have
guided bombs and can operate like cruise missiles.
The Ababil-3 is
a redesign of earlier Iranian drones, with twin tails. It is likely
based on a South African design which itself may have been borrowed from
old Israeli designs, such as the Israeli Hunter or Mastiff. The
Ababil-3 is supposed to be a medium-range reconnaissance drone, but Iran
says it has “combat” potential and can carry other payloads as well. It
has an electro-optical add-on that enables it to collect footage. Iran
used this capability in September 2018 to target Kurdish dissidents in
Iraq, filming its missile attacks with a drone.
Meanwhile, the Karar is designed to be a “strategic”
drone that
Iran says can be used as a kamikaze drone – basically like a cruise
missile. Iran has successfully deployed these kinds of technologies to
the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have used them against Saudi Arabia in
dozens of attacks.
The new drones allegedly have some sort of
guided missile or smart bomb ordnance. It’s not clear if Iran has
perfected the technology and ranges it ascribes to its drones, but
attacks in Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia are evidence that Iran’s drone
threat is increasing.
Iranian drones have been sent to Syria’s T-4
base. One of them flew into Israeli airspace in February 2018 and was
shot down by a helicopter. Iranian-backed Hezbollah also deployed drones
in the Golan in the fall of 2019. Israel carried out an airstrike in
August 2019 to neutralize the Hezbollah drone team.
Iran has
recently seen some of its shipments of drone parts stopped by the US
Navy on the way to Yemen. These included gyroscopes and other technology
that Tehran has used elsewhere in drone exports and drone warfare.
THE
REASON Iran is unveiling its drones now is linked to its annual army
day. However, Iran also used army day to showcase efforts to fight the
coronavirus. Iran has more than 5,000 dead from COVID-19, and the drone
unveiling is therefore a way to show that Iran continues its
technological advances despite US sanctions and the pandemic. Iranian
IRGC fast boats harassed the US Navy last week in the Persian Gulf – and
in the past, Iranian drones have flown over a US aircraft carrier and
provoked American ships. The USS Boxer downed an Iranian drone last
year.
Iran’s drones are its version of an air force. Since Iran does not have a very strong army, the
drones are
used to pose a strategic threat to enemies. Tehran uses the drones to
threaten attacks on infrastructure in other states, and it exports them
to what it calls the “axis of resistance,” its proxies across the
region. Its goal is to upgrade the abilities of groups such as Hezbollah
and the Houthis, groups which don’t have air forces and are ostensibly
at the mercy of much more powerful adversaries when it comes to air
power.
But the drone threat, in Iran’s view, can be a game
changer, by posing a threat that is difficult to detect or stop. That
was illustrated in the attack on Saudi Arabia, when Iranian drones
penetrated both radar defenses and air defenses.
Since Iranian
drones are generally not very fast moving and have no stealth abilities,
they can be easily detected. Iran has attempted to get around that by
using them like cruise missiles, or claiming it has new jet-powered
advances. Since the Islamic Republic already has an advanced rocketry
program for ballistic missiles, there is no doubt that it has the
ability to build different systems. Until they are used, however, it is
unclear what their real capabilities are. In Saudi Arabia,
Iranian-designed drones have flown hundreds of kilometers, penetrating
deep into the country’s interior.
Iran has continued to threaten
Israel through shipments of precision guided munitions to Hezbollah. Its
drone arm is one of many technologies it uses in these continuing
efforts.
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